Modi 3.0: The Final Numbers for 2024 Elections

As we have been projecting throughout this election season, NDA is increasing its vote-share in at least 4 states of the core-zone – Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi – while it is losing some votes in 5 states – Karnataka, Haryana, Maharashtra, Bihar and Rajasthan. Yet, our models indicate that in the core zone, BJP+ is net gaining about 1 percentage point from 2019.

Overall, in this zone, NDA should win 281 seats, though it must be stressed here that we haven’t polled Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, so our models are either using third party data or simply extrapolating current data of other parts on to past data to project the overall tally.

In a hyper-wave election, BJP may maximise its seats in 3 states, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh which could potentially open up the path for 400+ as there are at least 15 seats where NDA is currently trailing in our models but can flip them in a big wave like scenario.

The opposition INDI alliance is only showing minor improvement in the core zone in terms of vote-share but is not adding much in terms of seats. The problem for the opposition is that it is most certainly going to draw a blank in 6 states which itself makes the task uphill for the INDI alliance to make any meaningful recovery in this election cycle.

What could go wrong in our overall projection? There are 19 seats in this zone that are closely contested victories allocated to NDA. Even if NDA loses half of them on election day, there won’t be much impact on the overall result as Modi would still win a bigger mandate than 2019. If NDA loses all of them, then it would bring the 2024 Modi victory to the same level as the last time. Our models currently show greater confidence in an upside surprise for NDA rather than downside surprise because the data is pointing towards a wave election.

BJP’s domination in the East and huge growth in the south will be the stories of 2024 elections. We have already made the bold projection that BJP+ will be among the top two parties in all the 5 states and it is most likely inevitable now.

BJP’s domination of the east is another phenomenon we have been discussing throughout the election season. We have shown time and again how there is massive wave of anti-incumbency in Odisha and West Bengal, while there was pro-incumbency in Assam. The only difference between Odisha and Bengal is that in the former it is just fatigue with Naveen Patnaik’s BJD whereas in the latter it is mass Hindu anger against Mamata’s Muslim appeasement government.

In Andhra Pradesh also we had already projected an NDA wave sweeping out the YSRCP in the Lok Sabha election and in Telangana, we had projected BJP hitting double digit seats which was a stunning rise compared to just a few months ago when Congress had swept the state and BJP was nowhere. Our models are 77% confident that BJP will be the single largest in Telangana both in terms of votes as well as seats.

In Tamil Nadu, our models had projected 90 lakh plus votes for NDA and we still think this is the case, we have only converted 2 tossups into NDA wins now. Coimbatore could well become the 5^th BJP win on election day as Annamalai is not trailing by much and has a serious chance of coming through.

In Kerala, our models are a bit conservative and projecting 36 to 45 lakh votes for the BJP which should convert into 3 seats. It is the complete meltdown of the Left that will be the story of Kerala where Congress is expected to win all the remaining seats.

Despite such an improved performance by the BJP+ in the peripheral zone, there is still upside potential in almost all the states (except for Assam), as BJP can still improve upon this tally in Telangana, West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Kerala where it can add more than a dozen seats in a wave election by winning even those seats where our models are currently projecting it to be trailing narrowly.

Overall, in the peripheral zone BJP’s (only the party on its own) vote share is projected to have improved by more than 3 percentage points at the national level as compared to 2019.

The peripheral zone was supposed to be the INDI alliance’s strong area but even here it is trailing the NDA by quite a decent vote-share. In fact, it is only in Kerala and Tamil Nadu that the INDI alliance is doing well which is bringing in 53 of the 78 seats the opposition is winning (TMC tally has also been added to the INDI alliance total).

What could go wrong to our projections? Actually there isn’t much that can go wrong. At worst, TMC may win 3-4 more seats where BJP is currently showing narrow leads, other than this possibility, most of the data from this zone is pretty much baked in. Once again, the upside surprise is more likelier than a downside revision on counting day.

Overall, nationally, BJP is projected to get 42% vote-share and the other NDA allies to add another 8%, taking the Modi vote to 50%. The Opposition INDI alliance is projected to be stuck at 33% which means it is closer to half of what NDA is nationally which obviously gets reflected in the number of seats.

Our models are projecting 334 seats for the BJP and 53 seats for NDA allies taking the total tantalisingly close to 400 at 387 seats overall. These 387 include Punjab, Jammu and other union territories apart from the two zones discussed above. Once again, it must be stressed that in a wave election, 400 is very much possible as there are multiple paths to reach that top.

INDI alliance (including TMC) should get about 135 seats with Congress winning about 50 seats on its own. These 135 also include Punjab, Kashmir and other union territories along with the tallies from the two zones discussed above. The “Others” and Independents column will probably the weakest ever with only 21 seats being allocated to them.