Phase 3: The 2 PM Report: Focus on Karnataka

The year was 1991 when two of the biggest stalwarts of the Janata Dal were entrusted to make inroads into north Karnataka – one of them was a former Chief Minister, the other one would go on to be a Chief Minister latter in his life. The entire political class and the local as well as national media had then predicted that both would emerge victorious with consummate ease. Ramakrishna Hegde, despite being a Brahman himself, was the tallest Lingayat leader of the 80’s and 90’s and was contesting from Bagalkot, the veritable heartland of Lingayat politics. Siddaramaiah, the tallest Kuruba leader (Kurubas are politically analogous to Yadavs of north India), who was then in Janata Dal, was contesting from Koppal.

Both the stalwarts of the Janata Parivar humiliatingly lost their respective Lok Sabha elections to the Congress party in 1991. This has been the default political trend of the state, voters keep going back to the Congress party invariably, after brief interludes of experimentation. This is especially true of the Hyderabad-Karnataka region which is now known as Kalyana Karnataka. This is why when the Italian born Sonia Gandhi was looking for a safe seat to make her debut in 1999, her political managers chose Bellary from Kalyana Karnataka over all other regions of India.

Even last year, in state assembly elections, this region handsomely rewarded the Congress party to once again reaffirm its historic tryst of returning back to the Congress embrace. An unlikely combination of Muslims, backwards, Dalits and even a segment of upper castes go with Congress from time to time in this region to provide the grand old party a new lease of life. To that extent, USHV fails here and that is what perplexes the BJP leadership time and again, for they fail to solve the puzzle of Karnataka.

With that background in mind, the second phase of Karnataka elections unfolded today on the 7^th of May, in scorching heat of 42 degrees (which feels like 45 due to humidity). This is once again the battle of USHV v/s Karnataka’s tendency to deviate from that path. After first phase, our radar was trained to look for patterns that would tell us whether we are looking at the repeat of 2019 scenario or a deviation.