The Big Question: Has BJP outperformed 2019?

The 2019 election was the then peak of the BJP and NDA at the national level that was not achieved by any party or alliance since 1991 (breaching the 35^th percentile). As it is, maintaining that high watermark of the 2019 performance is a herculean task in itself, especially considering that BJP and its allies had peaked in most of its core states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Karnataka and even Maharashtra.

Generally, such peaks are followed by tangible declines in both vote-shares and seats, especially after a 10 year long rule as most governments all over the world get changed after two terms. In fact, no national government since Nehru has lasted more than two terms here in India too. Even the mighty Indira Gandhi lost 1977 after two terms. So what Modi is attempting should not be taken lightly, for he is trying to defy history.

We here at 5Forty3 Datalabs are looking at this election through two dimensions to try and quantify the growth or degrowth of both the alliances – the NDA and the INDI – as compared to 2019. The first dimension is what we call the “core heartland” and the second dimension is the “Periphery” consisting of the east and the south. Needless to say, the core heartland is the NDA stronghold whereas the periphery is more of a fragmented zone split between the INDI alliance and other parties like the TMC in West Bengal, the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, the BJD in Odisha, the Communists in Kerala, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and other smaller parties in the North East.